Monday, 9 April 2018

I Look at SPH REIT's 2Q FY18 Financial Results

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions about SGX stocks. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

SPH REIT recently released it's 2Q FY18 Results and I took a quick look at their presentation slides to see if it's worth investing at current price. I am not vested currently.




2 Properties to Rule Em all : Paragon and Clementi Mall

2Q DPU remains steady y-o-y at 1.4 cents

Gearing of SPH REIT is still fairly attractive at 25.4% in comparison to other local Retail REITS. However NAV is $0.94 and closing share price as at 9-4-2018 was trading above this value at $1.00. Honestly, I would not pay a premium price for SPH REIT.

NAV is $0.94 and Gearing is 25.4% 

On the positive side, both properties continue to achieve 100% occupancy. However, rental reversion was negative for both properties.


Seletar Mall a possible candidate for acquisition

Important dates

The pdf link for the presentation slides is available at this link: here

The current dividend yield based on current closing price of $1: 0.0553/1 x 100 = 5.53%
Assumption given that they could maintain the same DPU as previous year. In my opinion, the current dividend yield doesn't make it more attractive compared to other retail REITs. There also isn't any WOW factor in their presentation slides that make me want to invest in this REIT. 




Tuesday, 3 April 2018

Can this REIT finally deliver growth to Me? Conclusion

Part 2 link: here

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions about SGX stocks. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

Technical


Screencap using Chartnexus app

Fundamental

If we look at the post-acquisition (9 additional warehouses in Australia) DPU excluding 40 Alps avenue, the current yield is still pretty attractive. Current yield as at 3/4/2018 = 6.771/0.835 = 8.12%. The current yield is higher compared to MLT and FLT. However,  we should also consider other financial metrics before deciding which company is a better investment. All the 3 logistics trusts's share prices are currently trading above it's NAV prices by the way. CLT's gearing also reduces to 36% if we include the divestment of 40 Alps Ave. I previously said in earlier post the gearing was 39.3% which did not include this divestment. The actual presentation slides for the acquisition of the 9 properties in Australia could be downloaded here: link 

DPU and NAV improves with acquisition 
Hopefully, 2018 would be a turnaround year for Cache Logistics which has seen it's DPU and NAV going down in recent years. In the meantime, I would still be holding as things seems to be looking positive for this REIT this year.

Update: Cache Logistics Trust will be announcing it's Q1 2018 result on 25th April after the closing of trading.



Sunday, 1 April 2018

Can this REIT finally deliver growth to Me? Part 2

Part 1 link: here

Would Cache Logistics Trust be a good investment for someone who have invested since the initial listing? That's the topic for today. I will be sharing some findings to readers of my blog below.

History

Cache Logistics Trust first listed on the Singapore Exchange on 12 April 2010.  The intitial portfoilio consisted of 6 logistics warehouses in Singapore. The current portfolio as at April 2018 has grown to over 20 properties and it has since expanded into Australia and China market. Wow! Sounds good! Early Investors must be making a lot of money right? This is what we are going to explore.


IPO Price was $0.88 and NAV $0.87 in 2010

Huh. Am I missing something here? 8 years later and the current share price is actually lower than the Ipo price. Share price may not be a good way to judge if a company is doing well as Mr Market could be irrational and price the share price incorrectly? So let's look at the NAV instead. What's the latest NAV? It's actually $0.81. Seems like the NAV has been coming down in recent years too!

The NAV does looks good here from 2010 - 2014

Latest NAV inclusive of new Australian warehouses

8 years not long enough? Why is the NAV dropping instead of growing?

Okok. No worries. Those who invested since early days must have received a good amount of dividends over the years already right? We will investigate if this is true next. 

Total DPU from 2010 - 2014 = 41.543 cents
Total DPU from 2010 - 2017 = 41.543 + 8.5 + 7.725 + 6.583 = 64.351 cents
Avg dividend received per year = 64.351 / 8 = 8.04 cents

Let's assume we had bought Cache Logistics Trust on the first day of listing at mid price of (0.958 + 0.915)/2 = $0.94. We are still very profitable even though we would be suffering some capital loss if we sell at current price. The yield per year would still be around 7% per year if we decide to cut loss at current price. 

Capital Loss = $0.94 - 0.835 = $0.105
Total DPU after factoring in capital loss = 64.351-10.5 = 53.851 cents
Avg dividend received per year = 53.851 / 8 = 6.731 cents
Dividend yield per year after factoring in capital loss = 6.731 / 0.94 = 7.16%



To Be Continued ...

Saturday, 31 March 2018

Can this REIT finally deliver growth to Me?


Today, I will be looking at the latest results of Cache Logistics Trust. This is my top holding. Sad to say, I will still be suffering a loss if I liquidate this REIT after factoring in the dividends that I have collected over the years.

Yah. Right. I have been enduring my paper loss.

On the positive side, 9 Australian properties have been added to it's portfolio in Jan 2018. The acquisition is funded with a combination of a new S$110 million five year unsecured term loan facility and the remainder via proceeds from the recent issuance of Cache’s subordinated perpetual securities. The gearing will increase from 36.3% to 39.3% post acquisition.


The results that I am looking at today covers 4QFY17/FY17. Without further ado, let's get on with it.

There was a rights issue at $0.632 in Oct 2017. I blogged about it in a previous post. The rights issue has been very dilutive as could be seen from the screenshot below. This is due to the enlarged pool of units after this issue. Fortunately, I participated in that exercise or else my shares would also be diluted. Hopefully with the acquisition of the nine warehouses, DPU would improve y-o-y moving forward.
 

On the positive side, DPU grows by 3.6% q-o-q.

Full year results doesn't look good

As could be seen below, the NAV has dropped compared to previous quarter. Even without rights issue, it would still drop. 

Drop! Drop! Drop!


This screenshot is outdated as there are now 9 more Australian properties as shown below.

Freehold land tenure. Good! Total 16 Australia Properties.

Increase foothold in Australia. This slide is also outdated as it does not factor in the 9 new properties.

Lease dispute resolved

Divestment of 1 local Property

Local warehouse supply reducing next few years

To Be Continued ...

Friday, 30 March 2018

My Stock Dividend For March 2018

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions about stocks. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

Stock Portfolio (Cash)

These are the companies that will be contributing to my March 2018 Dividend Income:

Total amount: $330.80

Slow and Steady going UP!


Slight fall in dividend for Q1 2018 compared to 2017. 

For Q1 2018, I sold off OUE Hospitality Trust and added First REIT, Capitamall Retail Trust and Ellipsiz to my stock portfolio (cash). I also accumulated more Religare Health Trust shares. This is more of a speculative play due to potential buyout by sponsor. At current price, I don't find RHT's dividend yield attractive. RHT is a business trust and not a REIT. In my opinion, First REIT is more attractive as a healthcare dividend stock and I would be comfortable holding it longterm.

Sunday, 4 March 2018

Can This REIT Finally Reach For The Stars? Conclusion

Part 1: link

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

In my previous blog post, I mentioned the positives and negatives stuff that I read in Starhill Global REIT's latest financial result presentation slides. In this post, I will examine the Technical and DPU aspects.

Technical

Price is currently heading down. Next support $0.70.

I actually doubled down when the price hit $0.74.  Both RSI and Stochastics indicated oversold when I bought.

Fundamental

My dividend yield forecast based on purchase price of $0.74 would be around 6.31%.


If we compare the dividend yield with other retail REITs, Starhill Global is more attractive at it's current price. However, the Management has to start proving their ability to unitholders that they have the means to grow the DPU and return value to investors.


Starhill Global's IPO price was $0.767 and it was first listed in 2005. Fast forward to 12-13 years later, the share price didn't make much progress. I hope the Management doesn't turn this REIT into an ah pek aka grandpa stock. Keep longterm until old just for dividend and no capital gain. I believe unitholders would prefer both capital and dividend gain even though this is a REIT.


My Likes:
Low gearing of 35.3% (<45%)
99% of borrowings hedged against interest rate hikes
Trading at discounted price from NAV
Own Overseas Properties (Diversification)
Land Lease of properties are either freehold or long leasehold. The shortest leasehold is a China Property which expires in 40 years!
DPU is currently above 6% (as at 4/3/2018)

My Dislikes:
Dropping DPU
Office Segment not doing well locally
High lease expiry profile for FY2018/19

Moving forward, these few years will be challenging for Starhill Global. So no, I don't think they can reach for the stars.



Can This REIT Finally Reach For The Stars? I Look at It's Presentation Slides.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

It has been a while since I do a quick write-up on a REIT's financial results. Today I will be looking at Starhill Global REIT. This is a counter which I had previously purchased and my transactions are as shown below.


I actually read the presentation slides when it was released but I didn't get to do a blog post. Since the share price of REITs have come down, I will take this opportunity to review this REIT.


Jialat. DPU drops by 7.1% y-o-y!

                 The Good and Bad are my personal comment and not included in the actual slides

The Management has a proven track record of growing the DPU for unitholders even though there is a drop in recent years. 

Bad. Office sector is performing badly. China and Japan properties are not doing well too.

Majority of borrowings are hedged against interest rate hikes.

Current price as at 2-3-2018's closing was $0.73. Trading below NAV.

Lease expiry for FY18/19 is high. Hopefully, the Management could retain or secure tenants at positive rental escalation. Given that DPU has gone down in recent years, I am not so positive.

The slide looks rather bad. As could be seen, the office occupancy has been going down for the past few quarters. When the lease expiry arrives, will the Management be able to retain or secure new tenants? 




1 of their top tenant also pulled out their shops from Wisma Atria recently:

So Did I Sell or Buy More? To Be Continued ...