Can this REIT finally deliver growth to Me? Part 2

Part 1 link: here

Would Cache Logistics Trust be a good investment for someone who have invested since the initial listing? That's the topic for today. I will be sharing some findings to readers of my blog below.

History

Cache Logistics Trust first listed on the Singapore Exchange on 12 April 2010.  The intitial portfoilio consisted of 6 logistics warehouses in Singapore. The current portfolio as at April 2018 has grown to over 20 properties and it has since expanded into Australia and China market. Wow! Sounds good! Early Investors must be making a lot of money right? This is what we are going to explore.

IPO Price was $0.88 and NAV $0.87 in 2010

Huh. Am I missing something here? 8 years later and the current share price is actually lower than the Ipo price. Share price may not be a good way to judge if a company is doing well as Mr Market could be irrational and price the share price incorrectly? So let's look at the NAV instead. What's the latest NAV? It's actually $0.81. Seems like the NAV has been coming down in recent years too!

The NAV does looks good here from 2010 - 2014

Latest NAV inclusive of new Australian warehouses

8 years not long enough? Why is the NAV dropping instead of growing?

Okok. No worries. Those who invested since early days must have received a good amount of dividends over the years already right? We will investigate if this is true next. 

Total DPU from 2010 - 2014 = 41.543 cents

Total DPU from 2010 - 2017 = 41.543 + 8.5 + 7.725 + 6.583 = 64.351 cents

Avg dividend received per year = 64.351 / 8 = 8.04 cents

Let's assume we had bought Cache Logistics Trust on the first day of listing at mid price of (0.958 + 0.915)/2 = $0.94. We are still very profitable even though we would be suffering some capital loss if we sell at current price. The yield per year would still be around 7% per year if we decide to cut loss at current price. 

Capital Loss = $0.94 - 0.835 = $0.105

Total DPU after factoring in capital loss = 64.351-10.5 = 53.851 cents

Avg dividend received per year = 53.851 / 8 = 6.731 cents

Dividend yield per year after factoring in capital loss = 6.731 / 0.94 = 7.16%

To Be Continued ...