My Forex Trading Journey Reboot

Why Forex

It has been a while since I last blogged about Forex Trading. What attracts me to Forex Trading:

1) It is as easy to go short on a currency pair as it is to go long, unlike stock.

2) It is possible to focus just on a few major currency pairs.

3) The Forex market is still open at night for those of us staying in Asia. US market has just opened. I can take positions before going to bed.

4)  No direct correlation to the stock market. Even if stock market is going down, it is still possible to make money from Forex trading. I view it as a form of diversification. 

Why I Abandoned My Previous System

I have abandoned my previous method of trading Forex as the way I traded requires me to sit in front of the computer screen and wait for the potential setup to appear. Below screenshot is a glimpse of how I would trade previously.

On a downtrend: Go short when both the yellow bar and red wave appears after a pullback.

Moving Forward...

The ideal trading system which I have in mind is some form of trigger system that could alert me when potential trade setup takes place. The alerts could be sent via mobile phone or computer audio. Upon a setup trigger, I would then head over to my computer screen and decide if I want to take the trade or not.

I recently came across an MT4 indicator that has the capability to achieve this. Unfortunately, it is not free. The methodology is a trend following system which means we will only follow the buy signals when the currency pair is on an uptrend, and vice versa. The alert signals would provide clear entry, stop loss and take profit prices. I am currently in the midst of testing the accuracy and whether the system would be profitable in the long run. I would provide more updates and do a review of the system if it turns out to be profitable through my demo testing. As always, Demo Trade First! 

P.S - Advertisers/Marketeers, please don't advertise your products/services on my blog without my permission. I will delete your posts.

My Stock Dividend For May 2018

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions about stocks. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

Stock Portfolio (Cash)

The following companies will be contributing to my May 2018 Dividend Income:

Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust and Silverlake Axis are 2 companies added to my share portfolio this month. My purchase price for Frasers L&I's shares was $1.04. I will be subscribing to it's Preferential Offering in the coming week. My purchase price for Silverlake Axis's share price was $0.53.  The company did share buyback  between 15th - 18th May. The CEO and 1 independent director also bought the company shares this month. Cache Logistics Trust and Starhill Global Reit are 2 companies that continue to give disappointing results. *Shake head*

Dividend income improve in May 2018 compared to previous Mays

I Sold This REIT at a 27% Loss.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions about stocks. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

The REIT that caused me to lose so much is none other than Lippo Malls Trust. My purchase price was $0.44 and I sold it at $0.32 on Friday. The reason why I sold was due to the dismay quarterly result. I should have sold this REIT earlier. :(

Weakening Rupiah and new 10% tax contributed to the drop

Based on my purchase price of $0.44, my yield would not be attractive. It is not that hard to find a better REIT that could produce above 6% yield moving forward. The NAV as at 31 March 2018 was $0.30. The closing price as at 4-May-2018 was $0.32. The share price is currently trading above the NAV. With all the negativity surrounding this REIT, I feel there is a chance for the share price to drop further. With that said, $0.32 seems to be a current support line. The buy volume at $0.32 was also much higher than the sell volume at $0.325 when I sold on Friday. 

Things are not all grim at Lippo Malls Trust. Trivia question: Can you guess how much bonus the previous CEO received for FY2017 when she retired in March 2017? 

 

At least a million dollar was given for the CEO post for FY2017!!!

Salary 7% and Bonus 78%? How is that even possible? 8th Wonder of the World?! Best Employee of the Century?!

My Stock Dividend For April 2018

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions about stocks. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

Stock Portfolio (Cash)

These are the companies that will be contributing to my April 2018 Dividend Income:

My dividend for April dropped year-on-year!

Compared to last year, I already sold off my M1 shares and thus would no longer be receiving any dividends from the company moving forward. 9000 shares at a huge loss. Thanks and Bye M1. I have also added Capitamall Trust and First REIT to my portfolio this year. I accumulated 5000 more shares in Frasers Commercial Trust in early April. My recent purchase price for FCOT was $1.41. My average purchase price for FCOT is now $1.3556. I find FCOT's share price is still attractive in terms of dividend yield, discount to NAV and gearing ratio. I may opt for scrip dividends moving forward if the share price remains attractive.

Dividends Dropping!!!

I Look at SPH REIT's 2Q FY18 Financial Results

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions about SGX stocks. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

SPH REIT recently released it's 2Q FY18 Results and I took a quick look at their presentation slides to see if it's worth investing at current price. I am not vested currently.

2 Properties to Rule Em all : Paragon and Clementi Mall

2Q DPU remains steady y-o-y at 1.4 cents

Gearing of SPH REIT is still fairly attractive at 25.4% in comparison to other local Retail REITS. However NAV is $0.94 and closing share price as at 9-4-2018 was trading above this value at $1.00. Honestly, I would not pay a premium price for SPH REIT.

NAV is $0.94 and Gearing is 25.4% 

On the positive side, both properties continue to achieve 100% occupancy. However, rental reversion was negative for both properties.

Seletar Mall a possible candidate for acquisition

Important dates

The pdf link for the presentation slides is available at this link: here

The current dividend yield based on current closing price of $1: 0.0553/1 x 100 = 5.53%

Assumption given that they could maintain the same DPU as previous year. In my opinion, the current dividend yield doesn't make it more attractive compared to other retail REITs. There also isn't any WOW factor in their presentation slides that make me want to invest in this REIT. 

Can this REIT finally deliver growth to Me? Conclusion

Part 2 link: here

Disclaimer: This blog post is for entertainment purposes only where I share my findings and opinions about SGX stocks. It does not constitute any buy or sell recommendation. Always DYODD before making any trade or investment decision.

Technical

Screencap using Chartnexus app

Fundamental

If we look at the post-acquisition (9 additional warehouses in Australia) DPU excluding 40 Alps avenue, the current yield is still pretty attractive. Current yield as at 3/4/2018 = 6.771/0.835 = 8.12%. The current yield is higher compared to MLT and FLT. However,  we should also consider other financial metrics before deciding which company is a better investment. All the 3 logistics trusts's share prices are currently trading above it's NAV prices by the way. CLT's gearing also reduces to 36% if we include the divestment of 40 Alps Ave. I previously said in earlier post the gearing was 39.3% which did not include this divestment. The actual presentation slides for the acquisition of the 9 properties in Australia could be downloaded here: link 

DPU and NAV improves with acquisition 

Hopefully, 2018 would be a turnaround year for Cache Logistics which has seen it's DPU and NAV going down in recent years. In the meantime, I would still be holding as things seems to be looking positive for this REIT this year.

Update: Cache Logistics Trust will be announcing it's Q1 2018 result on 25th April after the closing of trading.

Can this REIT finally deliver growth to Me? Part 2

Part 1 link: here

Would Cache Logistics Trust be a good investment for someone who have invested since the initial listing? That's the topic for today. I will be sharing some findings to readers of my blog below.

History

Cache Logistics Trust first listed on the Singapore Exchange on 12 April 2010.  The intitial portfoilio consisted of 6 logistics warehouses in Singapore. The current portfolio as at April 2018 has grown to over 20 properties and it has since expanded into Australia and China market. Wow! Sounds good! Early Investors must be making a lot of money right? This is what we are going to explore.

IPO Price was $0.88 and NAV $0.87 in 2010

Huh. Am I missing something here? 8 years later and the current share price is actually lower than the Ipo price. Share price may not be a good way to judge if a company is doing well as Mr Market could be irrational and price the share price incorrectly? So let's look at the NAV instead. What's the latest NAV? It's actually $0.81. Seems like the NAV has been coming down in recent years too!

The NAV does looks good here from 2010 - 2014

Latest NAV inclusive of new Australian warehouses

8 years not long enough? Why is the NAV dropping instead of growing?

Okok. No worries. Those who invested since early days must have received a good amount of dividends over the years already right? We will investigate if this is true next. 

Total DPU from 2010 - 2014 = 41.543 cents

Total DPU from 2010 - 2017 = 41.543 + 8.5 + 7.725 + 6.583 = 64.351 cents

Avg dividend received per year = 64.351 / 8 = 8.04 cents

Let's assume we had bought Cache Logistics Trust on the first day of listing at mid price of (0.958 + 0.915)/2 = $0.94. We are still very profitable even though we would be suffering some capital loss if we sell at current price. The yield per year would still be around 7% per year if we decide to cut loss at current price. 

Capital Loss = $0.94 - 0.835 = $0.105

Total DPU after factoring in capital loss = 64.351-10.5 = 53.851 cents

Avg dividend received per year = 53.851 / 8 = 6.731 cents

Dividend yield per year after factoring in capital loss = 6.731 / 0.94 = 7.16%

To Be Continued ...