My Thoughts
At first glance, the current deal doesn't seems attractive. However, threat from North Korea is something which CRT shareholders should not ignore also.
Guess which direction would North Korea fire it's test missiles?
In case you missed it, North Korea actually flew it's missile over Hokkaido recently.
http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/09/08/549360220/in-hokkaido-being-in-north-korea-s-missile-flight-path-means-cold-war-era-drills
The properties owned by CRT are all located in Japan and shown below.
Here's a piece of news regarding Japan preparing evacuation of it's 60000 residents amid fear of missile launch. http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/643572/north-korea-news-latest-missile-launch-japan-evacuation
Another news regarding EMP threat against Japan https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/08/national/threat-of-north-korean-emp-attack-leaves-japan-vulnerable/
Under normal circumstances, in the absence of threat from North Korea, I would not think much about the proposed offer. However, I feel there's higher probability now that CRT's share price would continue to head southwards than upwards if tensions continue to build up between North Korea and US. Japan is near to North Korea and if war breaks out between US and North Korea, things won't look good for Japan too. Trump could be busy with Hurricane issues in US currently and not giving as much attention to North Korea for now.
Given current situation, would Japan's tourism still do well in the coming months or years? The retail sector in Japan is likely to be affected. Can CRT's DPU still continue to increase for the coming years assume the buyout deal failed to take place. Hopefully, shareholders who are voting would make a wise decision on Wednesday and not end up as a casualty of potential war. My verdict is: Take the money and run first before shit hits the fan.
THE END
If NK is what cause you to sell, then you are mistaken. Why? If NK launched a bomb into Japan. you can forget about any counters you hold even in SG.
ReplyDelete"Frankly,... I would look at the NK-Japan situation as it being a win-all OR a lose-all matter. If truely,... a bomb lands on Japanese soil, then the last thing that all of us need to worry abt would be our stocks investments. We would need to worrk about how to survive in a war. The conflict will involve all of us,...
If the above does not happen, then we need to continue worrying about where to get better returns. Croesus would be a very good source.
Hence, with the above reasoning, I' d try to continue holding CRT as much as I can till ' war breaks' out,...."
http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/listMessage.htm?topicId=11406&msgbdName=Croesus%20RTr&topicTitle=CROESUS%20Forum
Croesus mall are not towards tourist but local residents.
An actual war need not actually breakout to result in the share price to drop. If tension continues to buildup between US and NK, Japan is also likely to be affected. A Reit/Trust with properties in Japan would likely see it's shareprice dropping as investors start dumping shares.
DeleteIf your concern is about price dropping, perhaps you are at the wrong counter. This counter is for yield and the properties are free hold.
ReplyDeleteIf the price drop, one should accumulate more. If it's no good, why would Blackstone want to buy? Something to think about. If because if NK, you want to sell, than Blackstone should just say no, I am not buying. The reason Blackstone is buying is because they see it as undervalue and they are giving an undervalue price "hoping" that people will sell them. You can see all these while that they "are desperate to buy"
Everyone has their own criteria for dividend counter selection. No right or wrong. It's pointless debating who's right or wrong. Peace out.
DeleteMain point is they are under paying you as a shareholder to buy you out.
DeleteWell if you want to receive the short end of the stick and let Blackstone short charged you be my guest. If something is worth say $2 and someone comes and offer you $1 for it and then later they sell it off at $2.50, will you sell? I know I won't. They are the one laughing to the bank. Not us. That's what's happening here.